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Summary

Why estimating a comfortable retirement number is so hard, and a four-lever framework for building a number that's actually based on your own expenses, income, assets, and taxes rather than a generic rule of thumb.

Transcript

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Lightly edited for readability.

Why San Diego costs more

Housing costs in San Diego run about 60% above the national average, overall expenses run roughly 30% higher, and California's top state tax rate reaches 13%, well above many other states. Any retirement number needs to start from these local realities rather than a national average.

Common retirement rules

Two rules come up often: replacing about 80% of your pre-retirement income, on the assumption that some expenses fall away in retirement, and the 4% rule, which estimates how much you can withdraw annually from your portfolio without depleting it. Both are useful starting points, but they're not precise enough to plan around on their own.

The four-lever framework

A more accurate number comes from four levers. First, your actual expected spending in retirement, not a percentage of your current income, adjusted for what goes away (commuting, saving) and what gets added (travel, early-retirement health insurance). Second, guaranteed income sources like Social Security, which reduce how much you need to pull from savings. Third, the assets you can actually draw from, including investments, savings, and even home equity if downsizing is part of the plan. Fourth, time and taxes: how long your retirement needs to last, and converting all your accounts to an after-tax basis so a pre-tax 401(k) balance isn't confused with an already-taxed savings balance.

Taxes and RMD planning

Required minimum distributions begin between ages 72 and 75 and often force withdrawals larger than what you'd actually choose to spend, pushing you into higher tax brackets. The years before Social Security and RMDs begin are often the best window for Roth conversions, moving money into Roth accounts at today's lower rates instead of being forced into higher ones later. The goal isn't minimizing this year's tax bill, it's minimizing lifetime taxes.

Social Security timing

Because Social Security replaces part of your income needs, the age you claim changes how much you need from your own assets. Claiming early means a smaller benefit but less reliance on savings sooner; waiting until 70 means drawing more from savings early on but needing less replacement income for the rest of retirement. Running your own numbers at ssa.gov is a useful starting point.

Building your number

Start by mapping your expected monthly expenses, then layer in guaranteed income like Social Security to find the gap that needs to come from savings. Decide on a tax approach, a simple starting point is assuming 30 to 40% goes to taxes, and stress-test the plan against scenarios like extra health insurance costs. For a simple estimate, take the annual income gap and divide it by 4% or 5% to get a target number to work from.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much money do I need to retire in San Diego?

There's no single number. A more accurate approach uses four levers: your actual expected spending, guaranteed income like Social Security, the assets you can draw from, and time plus taxes, rather than a generic rule of thumb.

Is the 4% rule a good way to figure out how much I need to retire?

It's a reasonable starting point, but it's not precise enough to plan around alone. It works best combined with a clear picture of your actual expected spending and guaranteed income sources.

Why does San Diego cost more to retire in?

Housing costs in San Diego run about 60% above the national average, overall expenses run roughly 30% higher, and California's top state tax rate reaches 13%, all of which push the retirement number higher than a national average estimate.

What's a simple way to estimate my retirement number?

Take your annual income gap, the amount your expenses exceed your guaranteed income like Social Security, and divide it by 4% or 5% to get a target portfolio size to work from.

Want to talk through your own numbers?

Schedule a complimentary introductory call, or join our free weekly webinar for San Diego pre-retirees and retirees.